Madagascar

I've been following the conflict in Madagascar for some time, but I'm completely confused as to what's going on. In 2007, Andry Rajoelina, former DJ and 34 year old mayor of Antananarivo, was removed from power, and has since been removed from power. Since then, he has been leading protests to remove President Ravalomanana. Madagascar had been a dirt poor, but fairly calm and growing rapidly (around 6%) thanks to economic reform, growth of tourism, and a boom in prices for agricultural commodities. However, just two days ago Ravalamanana was overthrown by Rajoelina in a military coup.

I've tried to find out more about the conflict but the new reports conrain little. Some of the grievances of the opposition include the governments plan to lease a massive tract the size of Rhode Island to Daewoo, a South Korean conglomerate, to grow food crops. Also, Ravalomanana was accused of extravagance (although I've heard any details that are exceptionally bad). Only recently, Ravalomanana defeated long serving dictator Didier Ratsiraka lost a deeply flawed election to Ravalomanana. After fighting, Ravalomanana cemented his position in 2003 elections and I assumed he was fairly popular. Since late 2008, protests have rocked Madagascar and hundreds have died. At first, it seemed Ravalomanana had the upper hand, but eventually elements from the military overthrew Ravalomana, though its not clear whether high ranking or junior officers lead the coup. The fact the military stepped in is surprising since Madagascar has a long history of civilian dominance in politics.

One of the strange elements of the violence in Madagascar is that there doesn't appear to be any clear lines. Although Rajoelina has played the role of the populist, he hasn't enunciated a particularly pro-poor message. In general there seems to be a belief that inequality has increased in Madagascar in recent years. However, I suspect this isn't the case. Most agricultural commodities in Madagascar (Vanilla, coffe, fish) are in smallholder hands, and these smallholders have benefitted greatly in recent years. Although Ravalamanana pursued neo-liberal policies, third world governments are often regressive. Selling state-corporations, ending subsidies and reducing tariffs should benefit rich and poor equally. I don't know what side the unions, domestic business, armed forces, foreign capital has taken. Ravalamanana, once selling yogurt out of the back of a truck, constructed the largest business empire in Madagascar, Tiko. Businesses competing Tiko are anecdotally important to the new govenrment.

Also, one of the most important cleavages is between highland Merina (the descendents of Indonesians who settled about a thousand years ago) and lowland Cotiers, mostly the descendents of later African immigrants. Although Merina have historically, dominated Madagascar, the Cotiers ruled Madagascar between independence and 2002. However, both Ravalomanana and Rajoelina are Merina. Ethnicity is not nearly as important as it once was, and is barely mentioned in this latest controversy In general, reporters make 'tribal conflict' in Africa much more 'tribal' than it really is. That said, almost all of the violence is in Antananarivo, a Merina stronghold. I don't know how the conflict is playing out in the periphery of Madagascar.


The conflict has already had severe implications on the country. Daewoo, and many other corporations are pulling out. Tourism was a booming industry, but hotels are practically empty today. Moreover, Madagascar has gained a reputation for riskiness that will linger for years. Finally, the US and other nations have cut aid. Combined with the financial crisis and the resulting decline in commodity prices, Madagascar may grow short on foreign exchange. Madagascar's budget deficit was a massive 23.1% in 2008. Madagascar may face a currency crisis if investors lose confidence in Madagascar's economy.

Unfortunately, investors have reason to fear. Madagascar in many ways represents Africa's new found economic strength, and the fragility of these economies. Although Rajoelina appears to be in control, he relies on the armies goodwill. If the officers backing Rajoelina withdraw their support, or if supporters of Ravalomanana fight back the country could face civil war. Ethnic harmony can be destroyed by irresponsible politicians. Now that the military has a taste of power, it may not want to give to much authority to civilians government. Rajoelina has essentially launched a coup against the current government. If he genuinely is popular, he has nothing to lose from holding prompt elections. Creating a new dictatorship would be a blow to Madagascar's fragile democracy, Madagascar has come a long way since the 27- year Ratsiraka dictatorship. In 2009, Freedom house considered Madagascar an electoral democracy, and only one point away from being considered being free. If Rajoelina holds elections quickly, and allows real dissent, he could diminish imperfections in the current system. If not, he will be remembered as little better than another tin-pot dictatorship.

Rajoelina may be tempted to take populist measures like land seizures, and expand the state sector. Although populism may be an effective way of gaining popular support, it makes a poor philosophy for government. Rajoelina should countinue free-market policies and strengthen the welfare system so the poorest do not get left behind. Madagascar is sailing into troubled waters. Hopefully the new captain knows what he is doing.